Week's winners

FAZ

Shorting financials into the close.

Here comes the squeeze, out for now and on the side lines.

Strong financials make it difficult to have a real sell-off, a squeeze make stop me out from SDS.

Good economic news presents a classic profit-taking opportunity, continue to short the market.

SDS continue to short the market, long RTK

Trading Radar

BPOP, MBI, ABK, FIG, FUQI, SIGA, RTK

RTK

Rentech's synthetic jet fuel certified for commercial aviation.

CIT Picture Perfect

Financials XLF continue to outperform broader-market weakness.

SDS

SPY short-term countertrend resistance (100.03) for the time being. Continue to short.

SDS

The 38% retracement off the October 2007 high is near 1014. If the SPX doesn't rally another 9 points higher, the upward momentum can stall near 1007. I will consider a short position once I see a price rejection of the 1000 area in the SPX.

XLF

Relative Strength in Finance with the XLF setting a fresh eight month high

91% of the S&P 500 stocks, or 455 of them, are currently trading above their respective 50 and 200 day simple moving averages. These extreme numbers are usually not maintained for long and warn of a correction to come.

STEC beats by $0.08, beats on revs and guides higher, trading 9% down post-market.

S&P 500 trading above 1,000 for the first time since November after the ISM manufacturing Index results and a surprise increase in construction spending for June. The weaker dollar is helping oil prices climb back past the $70 mark.

• Broad-based buying continues to lift stocks despite continued calls for a pullback.
• ISM Manufacturing Index for July and construction spending data for June both exceed expectations and improve from previous month.
• Commodity stocks are trading higher as the dollar continues to trend lower. Gold higher, Oil higher.
  

Trading up: ANDS +65%, OFIX +24.8%, ABAX +21.8%, SSRX +15.5%, NVTL +15.2%, DSCM +14.8%, GGC +13.1%, ISLN +12.5%, GXDX +12.2%, POWI +12.1%, LAD +11.1%, BEC +10%, REXX +9.3%, SGY +8.4%, RST +8%, SRZ +7.3%, IRE +6.9%, OMX +6.6%, VCI +6.2%, THO +6%... Trading down: SYNA -26.5%, PIR -20.2%, GPRO -12.8%, PKI -12.8%, HTCH -12.4%, DNB -11.9%, ESLR -11.3%, PBI -10.9%, LVS -10.5%, FSLR -9.9%, AGP -9.3%, MPWR -8.5%, FVE -7.9%, INFN -7.1%, CAST -6.9%, VPRT -6.6%, E -6.2%.

MSFT

Microsoft's earnings miss can bring the market back to reality.

Miami Herald

McClatchy, MNI - continuing higher today following Q2 results and comments by the CFO yesterday. The stock jumped nearly 40% yesterday on the news.

Colombia (Empresas Publicas de Medellin) To Sell $500M, 10-Yr Bonds; Yld Around 8%

Commercial RE

Moody's has reported that the downward spiral in commercial real estate market fundamentals has accelerated as the recession persists. For the first time in six years, none of the seven property types tracked by Moody's has a "green" or strong score, while four of the property types are at levels of weakness unmatched in the almost 10-year history of the study.

First Solar FSLR, SunTech Power STP, and JA Solar JASO are all trading with significant gains after the China Ministry of Finance provided additional details about solar PV subsidies.

Store Sales

Released on 7/21/2009 8:55:00 AM For wk7/18, 2009 Prior Actual Store Sales Y/Y change -5.7 % -5.8 %

Highlights Redbook continues to report extreme rates of deterioration in same-store retail sales: minus 5.8 percent year-on-year in the July 18 week for a minus 1.7 percent plunge from June. The year-on-year rate is a new low but not the month-on-month drop, which is modest compared to the 4.3 percent catastrophe Redbook indicated for June. Redbook hasn't been commenting on why its readings are so extreme though the sweep lower began when Wal-Mart was removed from the sample. In any case, weekly retail reports and nearly all company news out of the sector point to still severe contraction in the retail sector.

Earnings

Of the 59 S&P 500 companies who have reported, 69% beat estimates, 8% were in-line, and 22% were below estimates.

Market

A third month of strong gains in leading indicators would increase talk of recovery and could increase demand for risk. This market is moving up a little bit too fast, I am skeptical, but again I've been wrong too often lately.

Retail Sales

As reported, retail sales posted their largest gain in five months in June. But if you read the report you will find out that most of the higher prices, came from higher gasoline prices.

What was the report showing without gasoline prices? When gasoline and the give-away incentives for the car makers is not counted, retail sales dropped for the 4th consecutive month.

The Redbook data that shows US Retail Sales: Down 1.7% for the first week of July and down 5.7% for the week ending July 11th, both vs. a year ago. "Redbook keeps reporting sharp declines with same-store sales at a year-on-year minus 5.7 percent in the July 11 week. Month-to-date, sales are down 1.7 percent vs. June."

Released on 7/14/2009 8:30:00 AM For June, 2009

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Retail Sales - M/M change	0.5 %	0.5 %	0.1 % to 1.0 %	0.6 %
Retail Sales less autos - M/M change	0.5 %	0.6 %	0.2 % to 1.5 %	0.3 %

Released on 7/14/2009 8:55:00 AM For wk7/11, 2009

Prior Actual Store Sales Y/Y change -4.2 % -5.7 %

Meredith Whitney, (the last analyst on Wall Street that has any credibility), told CNBC she liked the banks...SHORT-term. She said they were fantastic long-term buys and that they would never, ever, have a problem again. She also said, "Unemployment is likely to rise to 13% or higher and will weigh on the economy for several years, countering government efforts to stabilize the banking industry..."

PPD

Bullish flag.

Tech

The computer maker tumbled 8.1% to 11.97 after DELL executives said the U.S. Personal Computer market has hit its low point but the timing of a tech turnaround remains anyone's guess. Chief Executive, Michael Dell said at a meeting with analysts that customers aren't replacing their PCs, but he sees more replacements in '10 as Microsoft MSFT launches Windows 7. CFO Brian Gladden said U.S. sales are "finding a bottom" but are "not necessarily getting a lot better." On Mon., Dell predicted lower gross margins in Q2 but a slight sales gain vs. Q1.

Intel (INTC) on Tuesday reported second-quarter results that beat views by a wide margin, helped by strong sales of its Atom chip.

Calendar

Economics:
8:30am ET

• CPI for June - Street expects 0.6%
  
• Empire Manufacturing for July - Street expects -5

9:15am ET

• Capacity Utilization for June - Street expects 67.9%
  
• Industrial Production for June - Street expects -0.6%

10:30am ET

• Crude Inventories for the week of 7/10

2pm ET

• FOMC Minutes for June 24 Meeting

CPST

Capstone Turbine Corporation (Nasdaq: CPST) Capstone products are eligible for reimbursement from a $3 billion fund created through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (Recovery Act).

Before Market Opens:
Economics:
8:30am ET

• PPI for June - Street expects 1%, compared to 0.2% in May
  
• Retail Sales for June - Street expects 0.4%, or 0.5% ex-autos

Earnings:
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) - consensus EPS $3.48

NFLX

Sony Electronics to add Netflix to Bravia Internet Video Platform.

SPY Daily Pivot Table

SP 500 Critical Moment

I'll wait for a close below 875 before shorting, I suspect intervention.

E-Mini S&P 500 trading at 870, $TRIN 2.25 - NYSE Advances 854 - NYSE Declines 1938 - VIX 30.14. Time to get short.

Watching from a distance

After staging an early reversal off their lows, the major averages have retreated from their morning highs in the wake of a worse than expected preliminary Michigan Sentiment reading for July, which came in at 64.6, below the 70.0 consensus. A dangerous trading environment today, the bulls are fighting back or is it the black hand of the government?

RIGL

Rigel Pharma in play after results of Rheumatoid Arthritis drug trial.

SPY Daily Pivot Table

GE $2 stock ?

Managing director of Newport Value Investors and long-time bear, Charles Ortel, is out with a bold call on General Electric (NYSE: GE) this morning. Appearing on Yahoo!'s Tech Ticker show, the researcher called GE a $2 stock. GE only had $2.8 billion of tangible common equity while at the same time holding about $470 billion in debt.

Relative Strength

POT, MOS, AGU, TRA

Sectors

Trading sideways as stocks struggle to find clear path; not a definite buying or selling effort.

Energy XLE, materials XLB , and financials XLF are all trading with gains, which are the best of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500.

Health care XLV trading down, worse than any other major sector.

S&P 500, NYSE, NASDAQ heading higher at outset. NYSE breadth 18-6 positive, NASDAQ breadth 14-5 positive.

SPY Daily Pivot Table

PCS

PVTM and Morning Star, a 3 day candle stick bullish reversal.

Sectors

Government Intervention

Today's wild action confirms what Larry Levin said on CNBC, "this market continues to be propped up by government intervention and manipulation, disregarding the underlying currrent..."

An excerpt from the pit:

"As the market dropped below 882.00, it became more volatile. In fact, as called by our auctioneer service (Paul specifically) of PitNoise.com, things got a little wild. Near 882.00 a large order came into the pit to buy 400 contracts, which has a notional value of $100-million! At first these contracts were not taken out by the locals in the pit and Paul even told us locals began bidding in front of this large order. When the market finally reached our 875.00/873.00 MOB (Make or Break) level, it got crazier. Paul called another 400-lot order, and another, and another…and yet another. The final order was never filled. What happened? The locals in the pit who trade their own accounts got the picture: whoever was buying was not going to stop" Someone was determined to have the SP 500 close above 875.

Markets

After testing and holding session lows near 870, the stock market has bounced back. Still, losses remain broad-based as decliners outnumber advancing issues by 4-to-1 in the S&P 500. It feels like someone is trying to steer a controlled correction.

Market Breather

Long-end Treasurys catch a strong bid after solid $19B, 10-year note auction results: High Yield 3.36% vs. 3.4% expected. Bid/cover 3.28 vs. average of 2.42. Indirect Bidders 43.9% vs. average of 27.8%. 30-year futures +1.06% to 120-22. 10-year+0.95% to 118-12. 5-year +0.52%. 2-year +0.09%.

The major indices have all extended their recent downturn to trade at session lows with significant losses. Health care stocks continue to hold up, though. The sector is up as biotech BBH shows strength following strong drug trial results from Amgen AMGN.
I Continue to short the market.

SPY 875 about to be taken

$TRIn 1.64 - NYSE Advances 767 - NYSE Declines 2060 - VIX 31.57

$TRIN 1.02- NYSE Advance 1291 - NYSE DEclines 1432 - VIX 30.71

Sectors

Sector strength: Biotech–BBH; Regional Banks- KRE; Biotech-IBB; Basic Materials–XLB; Coal–KOL.
Sector weakness: Silver– SLV; Heating Oil– UHN

SPY Daily Pivot Table

The CRB Commodity Index closed 1.5% lower. Crude oil prices saw the most selling pressure. They finished lower for the fifth straight session as they dropped 1.8% to $62.90

XLV

Health Care XLV remains the only major sector trading with gains today following this mornings article in the The Washington Post which stated that hospitals have agreed to contribute $155 billion over 10 years toward the cost of insuring those without health care coverage.

LM

5 day pull back, uptrend.

CI

HMO's higher on report hospitals reach a deal with Obama administration.

JAZZ

Jazz Pharmaceuticals completes $7 million private placement.

IVN

4 day PVTM

MKSI

Relative strength

SPY Daily Pivot Table

GWSC

GWS Technologies, Inc., is engaged in providing wind turbines and other wind and solar products and alternative energy solutions to the government and consumer markets.

Sectors

EQIX

3 day pull back - PVTM

XLU

The utility sector, is getting another look as markets turn increasingly defensive in re-evaluating the economic recovery in anticipation of Q2 earnings.

IVN

Ivanhoe Mines, 3 days PVTM

CSII

Cardiovascular Systems Inc. added to Russell 3000. The Company's major offering is the Diamondback 360° Orbital Atherectomy System. The device is designed to remove calcium and other tough plaque morphologies, while minimizing the risk of perforation, dissection1, and barotrauma2.

Top 10 - After 10:00

DDSS, ERY, DUG, GERN, S, SMN, UAUA, DNDN, TZA, RF.

Stocks to Watch

Companies whose shares are expected to actively trade in Monday's session are LDK Solar Co., Spectrum Pharmaceuticals Inc. SPPI and ATS Medical Inc. ATSI.

SPY Daily Pivot Table

CETV

Central Euromedia receives $100M investment.

US Debt

Next week, four debt auctions: $19B of 10-year notes, $35B of 3-year notes, $11B of 30-year bonds, and $8B in TIPS. It's the first time since the Treasury started issuing securities regularly in 1976 that it's auctioned four in one week.

Market

The market has sent the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages in the S&P 500 back below 50%. Currently, 45% of stocks are above their 50-days. The worst sector is Energy. Just 8% of Energy stocks are above their 50-days. Industrials is the second worst at 22%. Fund managers chasing the rally realized that fundamentals matter.

GIS

General Mills a China play.

DPS

Dr Pepper Snapple Group, steady climber.

Selling MOS $45.47

MTB

In Play, no news

DFS

Discover Financial Services upgrade brings optimism to option traders.

MOS

Buying MOS 45.20, Risking $ 0.50

FSLR

First Solar was downgraded at JP Morgan, my guess we don't believe the analysts any longer.

MOS

Potash producers higher following report of price increases.

SNX

Synnex Corp. advances on better than expected results, guidance.

Market Internals

$TRIN 1.56 - NYSE Advances 229 - NYSE Declines 2465 - VIX 28.19

QQQQ - The tech sector tumbled Thursday morning, caught in a broad market sell-off as investors reacted to grim news about rising unemployment in the United States.

Employment

June Nonfarm Payrolls Drop 467,000 Versus the Consensus of a 367,000 Drop Unemployment Rate at 9.5%, Versus the Consensus of 9.6%

SPY Pivot Table

Today's 10:00 am Reversal

Sideways for now

Stocks continue to hold on to strong, broad-based gains, but the major indices are gradually drifting lower.

C

The Financial Times reported that Citigroup - (C) has sharply increased interest rates on up to 15 million U.S. credit card accounts just months before curbs on such rises come into effect. This is how bailed-out banks say thank you to consumers.

Mixed Economic Data

The Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing executives, says its manufacturing index read 44.8 in June, up from 42.8 in May.
A fourth straight monthly rise in pending home sales in May.
The Commerce Department said on Wednesday that construction spending dropped 0. 9 percent in May, nearly double the 0.5-percent decline that economists had expected.
The ADP Employer Services reported companies in the United States cut more jobs than forecast in June, showing the labor market will be slow to improve.

PIR - In Play

Pier 1 Imports Inc. (PIR), approaching the end of the first month in its fiscal second quarter, is exceeding its internal projections.

XLV

Impressive, broad-based gains remain. Despite the strong gains in the broader market, health care stocks aren't showing much strength.

Markets

After a recent pullback, stocks have climbed to fresh session highs. Commodities are also showing strength.
$TRIN 0.84 - NYSE Advances 2408; Declines 448(+1960) - VIX 24.97

SPY Pivot Table

ADP Employment Report

Released on 7/1/2009 8:15:00 AM For June, 2009

Prior Actual ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment -532 M/M Difference -473 M/M Difference